Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xeca1…3d96 crypto 175 markets active 8h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$694 (-4%) realized −$1,564 · open +$870
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate67%114W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$11,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$155
14 days−$173
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$831
other 12% −$577
finance 11% −$1,000
sports 7% +$62
world 2% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +68.1% +52.1% 80% 80% +65.2%
≤30d 9 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 44% -39.9%
≤90d 75 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 40% -38.6%
all 171 -3.7% -12.9% 67% 34% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 34% -27.2%
10% -21.2% 22% -34.1%
15% -28.8% 18% -40.5%
20% -35.8% 15% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$57 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$11,087
Realized−$1,564
Unrealized+$870
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses114 / 57
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)171 / 175
History coverage98d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9,953 $10,817 +$863 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $104 $111 +$7 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$37 +105%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$71 +140%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 07 $54 −$54 -100%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-02? Jun 07 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Jun 07 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-02? May 09 $7 +$18 +238%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 29 $100 +$137 +137%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $38 +$70 +183%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $60 +$66 +110%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $76 +$73 +97%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-05? Apr 09 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-05? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-05? Apr 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $62 +$58 +93%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Oxford United FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $39 +$31 +79%
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $50 −$16 -31%
Norwich City FC vs. Portsmouth FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $35 $0 +1%
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 03 $53 +$49 +92%
Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 03 $50 +$3 +6%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Apr 03 $69 −$69 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 03 $50 +$20 +40%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 29 $778 −$778 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 29 $794 −$110 -14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 29 $271 −$179 -66%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 28 $50 +$117 +233%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 27 $80 +$47 +58%
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $32 +$14 +45%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $300 −$42 -14%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs OG - Game 1 Winner Mar 26 $14 +$13 +89%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Mar 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 25 $9 +$3 +29%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 24 $50 +$9 +18%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Bucheon FC 1995 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $105 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 8h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 10h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 28h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 41h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $400 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $67 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9,983 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $527 10d
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 32¢ $44 11d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $54 38d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $119 39d
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 29¢ $7 46d
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 48¢ $112 46d
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-29? BUY No 27¢ $26 49d
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-26? SELL No 77¢ $96 52d
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-26? BUY No 37¢ $100 52d
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $134 53d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $70 56d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? SELL Yes $4 56d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? SELL Yes $13 56d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $38 56d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? SELL Yes $1 56d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 56d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 56d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,086.86 · official $11,086.87 (match) · 654 history records