Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xeca0…e8f8
world · 308 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$27,075 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20,149 · open +$6,802
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$66,041
Realized+$20,149
Unrealized+$6,802
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses142 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions147
Markets (closed)219 / 308
History coverage26d
Avg bet$1,318
Trades / day124.7
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 147 History 219 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$927
7 days+$2,814
14 days+$6,432
30 days+$20,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $2,155 $2,625 +$470 (+22%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 58¢ 82¢ $1,730 $2,475 +$745 (+43%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 65¢ 78¢ $1,958 $2,325 +$367 (+19%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 93¢ 100¢ $2,093 $2,249 +$156 (+7%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 88¢ 100¢ $1,766 $1,990 +$224 (+13%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 83¢ 99¢ $1,662 $1,983 +$321 (+19%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 88¢ 97¢ $1,533 $1,705 +$171 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $1,717 $1,674 −$43 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $1,760 $1,540 −$220 (-12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,400 $1,499 +$99 (+7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,425 $1,471 +$46 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 70¢ 100¢ $704 $1,000 +$295 (+42%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 89¢ 100¢ $887 $999 +$112 (+13%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 93¢ 97¢ $930 $966 +$36 (+4%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 60¢ 95¢ $604 $953 +$350 (+58%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 42¢ 95¢ $422 $948 +$527 (+125%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $921 $915 −$6 (-1%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 60¢ 74¢ $723 $898 +$175 (+24%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 60¢ 89¢ $601 $888 +$287 (+48%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 34¢ 88¢ $342 $875 +$532 (+155%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $1,058 $870 −$188 (-18%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 42¢ 42¢ $840 $850 +$10 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $880 $835 −$45 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 79¢ $540 $787 +$246 (+46%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $750 $745 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $72 +$53 +73%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $38 +$4 +10%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $314 −$13 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $11,983 +$346 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $145 +$55 +38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $615 +$173 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $819 +$16 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $4,922 +$157 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $961 +$39 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $1,728 +$44 +2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $28,000 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1,783 +$197 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,138 +$251 +22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $76 +$74 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $118 −$118 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $276 −$22 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $843 −$216 -26%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $890 −$50 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $2,610 +$124 +5%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 11 $850 +$100 +12%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $104 +$46 +45%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 11 $557 −$263 -47%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $3,496 $0 +0%
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $59 −$12 -21%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15? Jun 11 $458 −$329 -72%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in May? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,579 +$274 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,895 +$93 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $468 +$12 +3%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 10 $213 +$201 +94%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30? Jun 10 $239 +$20 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 30? Jun 10 $93 +$30 +32%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $3,224 −$274 -8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $282 −$282 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $740 −$3 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $292 +$113 +39%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,763 +$185 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $420 $0 +0%
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $23 +$17 +76%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $568 +$149 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,953 +$229 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $16,282 +$484 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,503 +$430 +17%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $62 +$47 +75%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 07 $1,770 −$20 -1%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $1,157 −$131 -11%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $440 +$480 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% +$11,142
politics 15% +$5,093
other 11% +$8,958
tech 3% +$1,177
sports 2% +$219
crypto 1% +$370
economics 1% −$29
finance 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY 28¢ $51 0m
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 73¢ $4 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $74 31m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 53m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $42 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1,717 54m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $76 59m
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 1h
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $119 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $298 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $582 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $880 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $74 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $758 1h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 78¢ $39 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 85¢ $38 1h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $109 1h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +7.1% -3.1% 62% 37% -7.0%
≤30d 219 +21.8% +10.2% 65% 42% -3.4%
≤90d 219 +21.8% +10.2% 65% 42% -3.4%
all 219 +21.8% +10.2% 65% 42% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover124.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.2% 42% -3.4%
10% -0.4% 31% -12.6%
15% ← realistic here -10.0% 26% -21.1%
20% -18.8% 23% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,040.99 · official $66,041.19 (match) · 3500 history records