Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec9f…c3fb other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,456 (-24%) realized −$6,455 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$522per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,628
7 days−$1,628
14 days−$1,628
30 days−$1,628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$4,920
other 39% −$2,420
finance 3% +$27
culture 2% −$80
crypto 1% +$301
world 1% −$29
politics 0% +$14
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +39.8% +26.4% 67% 67% -44.5%
≤30d 9 +39.8% +26.4% 67% 67% -44.5%
≤90d 15 +32.6% +19.9% 80% 73% -41.3%
all 48 -5.5% -14.5% 58% 40% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 40% -32.9%
10% -22.7% 33% -39.3%
15% -30.2% 19% -45.2%
20% -37.0% 19% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$720) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$495 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$6,455
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage185d
Avg bet$522
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $610 −$465 -76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,244 −$363 -29%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $310 +$190 +61%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $52 +$148 +285%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,495 −$1,479 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $399 +$301 +75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +54%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 20 $87 +$23 +27%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 19 $9 +$1 +16%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 19 $51 +$4 +9%
Iran leadership change by March 31? May 19 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? May 19 $50 +$14 +28%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? May 19 $51 +$15 +30%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? May 19 $50 +$18 +35%
Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more? Mar 17 $10 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 17 $26 +$4 +15%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 17 $28 +$2 +8%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Feb 24 $199 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Wizards vs. Hornets Jan 24 $570 −$90 -16%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 02 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $20 +$16 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $8 −$5 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $21 +$16 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $1,941 −$740 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $84 +$83 +98%
Hawks vs. Thunder Dec 30 $94 −$64 -68%
Mavericks vs. Kings Dec 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 27 $1,750 −$1,750 -100%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 27 $1,850 −$640 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $691 −$35 -5%
Rockets vs. Lakers Dec 26 $145 −$145 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 25 $1,250 +$430 +34%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 25 $1,225 +$429 +35%
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y Dec 24 $468 −$80 -17%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 24 $722 +$27 +4%
Rockets vs. Clippers Dec 24 $870 +$286 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 24 $720 +$46 +6%
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers Dec 23 $1,280 +$720 +56%
Magic vs. Jazz Dec 20 $560 −$560 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Dec 20 $3,394 −$3,394 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 20 $4,006 +$5 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Dec 19 $59 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 15¢ $145 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No $31 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 61¢ $610 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $347 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $849 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $52 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $207 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $690 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 67¢ $677 8h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 9h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $3 10h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $2 10h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $4 10h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $1 10h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $5 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $146 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $24 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 38¢ $116 10h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 62¢ $204 10h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 62¢ $82 10h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 62¢ $24 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $170 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $183 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $178 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $399 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $20 32d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 92¢ $51 95d
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 95d
Iran leadership change by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $51 95d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 74¢ $50 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.13 · official $231.13 (match) · 339 history records