Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xec98…afcd
sports · 158 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,875 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,365 · open +$15,271
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$66,736
Realized−$6,365
Unrealized+$15,271
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses74 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$11,198
Open positions18
Markets (closed)155 / 158
Avg bet$5,923
Trades / day402.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 18 History 155 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,851
7 days−$2,628
14 days−$6,365
30 days−$6,365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 82¢ $9,829 $15,601 +$5,772 (+59%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 57¢ 64¢ $9,750 $10,965 +$1,215 (+12%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 81¢ 94¢ $8,100 $9,385 +$1,285 (+16%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 52¢ 100¢ $4,863 $9,359 +$4,497 (+92%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $4,590 $6,031 +$1,441 (+31%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 76¢ 88¢ $3,754 $4,322 +$568 (+15%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 49¢ 44¢ $2,450 $2,225 −$225 (-9%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $2,480 $2,175 −$305 (-12%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 81¢ 98¢ $1,382 $1,674 +$292 (+21%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 60¢ 95¢ $900 $1,421 +$521 (+58%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 66¢ 99¢ $858 $1,288 +$430 (+50%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 36¢ 40¢ $930 $1,006 +$77 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner FURIA 60¢ 51¢ $750 $638 −$112 (-15%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $400 $496 +$96 (+24%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No 70¢ 24¢ $420 $141 −$279 (-66%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 74¢ 62¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 1¢ 83¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+8205%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 9¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Astralis 38¢ 0¢ $1,263 $0 −$1,263 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 27¢ 0¢ $338 $0 −$338 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BIG 46¢ 0¢ $452 $0 −$452 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 35¢ 0¢ $1,849 $0 −$1,849 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 51¢ 0¢ $4,142 $0 −$4,142 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 31¢ 0¢ $819 $0 −$819 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3,512 +$238 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $754 +$396 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $499 −$437 -88%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,725 +$775 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,829 −$3,775 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12,774 −$3,771 -30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $11,327 +$2,034 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6,409 +$1,521 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $69 −$67 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4,164 +$4,070 +98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6,044 +$650 +11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,683 +$148 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4,092 −$4,017 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,378 −$2,327 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,483 −$1,069 -31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,265 +$3,095 +137%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $703 +$70 +10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $788 −$788 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $14,623 −$4,473 -31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8,363 −$325 -4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $957 −$792 -83%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $597 −$588 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $11,020 +$9,078 +82%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $14,561 −$3,298 -23%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10,017 +$6,465 +64%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $4,491 −$1,980 -44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $12,563 +$1,791 +14%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $6,337 −$775 -12%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $7,135 +$3,315 +46%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $4,954 +$3,465 +70%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,418 +$493 +35%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2,585 +$2,329 +90%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8,811 −$5,999 -68%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $876 −$452 -52%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2,544 −$44 -2%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,804 −$1,394 -77%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,713 −$225 -13%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3,418 +$2,250 +66%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3,883 −$1,952 -50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $12,426 −$2,088 -17%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $948 −$938 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $11,545 +$506 +4%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $7,950 +$2,946 +37%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $206 +$15 +7%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10,301 −$232 -2%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $3,882 +$1,976 +51%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3,719 +$387 +10%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $934 +$893 +96%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,578 +$288 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 82% −$6,938
world 13% +$294
other 5% +$15,308
politics 0% +$242
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 74¢ $8 4m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 36¢ $450 7m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 60¢ $750 7m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 36¢ $18 8m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 37¢ $462 8m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 4¢ $50 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 4¢ $50 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $425 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $1,418 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $1,018 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 72¢ $37 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $650 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $362 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $306 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $383 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $383 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $383 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $383 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $383 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $383 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $400 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $412 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $11 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $401 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $1,987 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $276 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $284 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $284 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $14 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $375 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +19.3% +8.0% 49% 42% -9.6%
≤30d 155 +15.5% +4.5% 48% 41% -10.1%
≤90d 155 +15.5% +4.5% 48% 41% -10.1%
all 155 +15.5% +4.5% 48% 41% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover402.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 41% -10.1%
10% -5.5% 32% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here -14.7% 24% -26.5%
20% -23.0% 19% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,736.42 · official $66,736.42 (match) · 3500 history records