Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec97…2fbd politics 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 507d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate82%146W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$25
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 29% −$9
politics 28% −$46
world 16% +$12
other 11% −$1
crypto 10% +$18
sports 5% −$13
culture 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.7% +1.1% 100% 25% +17.8%
≤30d 6 -2.0% -11.4% 67% 17% -11.1%
≤90d 31 -13.4% -21.6% 74% 6% -18.4%
all 178 -3.1% -12.3% 82% 12% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 12% -11.2%
10% -20.7% 4% -19.7%
15% -28.4% 1% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

507d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses146 / 32
Open positions18
Markets (closed)178 / 196
History coverage507d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $219 $224 +$5 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $110 $112 +$1 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $105 $107 +$2 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Jun 01 $223 −$26 -12%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $9 −$4 -48%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Apr 11 $9 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31? Apr 04 $1 $0 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $1 $0 +4%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $1 $0 +5%
Hillary Clinton charged by March 31? Apr 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Apr 04 $2 $0 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be greater than or equal to 3 Mar 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. national debt hit $39 trillion before 2027? Mar 21 $3 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China by November 30? Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $20 −$3 -16%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Mar 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 15 $356 +$4 +1%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $1 $0 -0%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 11 $1 $0 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Mar 08 $7 −$2 -23%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 5? Mar 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? Mar 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 6? Mar 05 $1 $0 -9%
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal Ho Mar 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Mar 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 19m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 22m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $2 46m
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 4d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 4d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $101 13d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL No 84¢ $197 13d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $4 25d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 32¢ $5 25d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $3 30d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 30d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 30d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 33¢ $3 30d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n BUY No 96¢ $1 32d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their BUY No 89¢ $1 32d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $2 35d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 35d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 35d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.84 · official $525.84 (match) · 592 history records