Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

EC 0xec94…2f1e crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip

Net edge-48%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day38.0pace

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-39.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-32.7%	-39.1%	41%	41%	-10.9%
≤30d	22	-32.7%	-39.1%	41%	41%	-10.9%
≤90d	22	-32.7%	-39.1%	41%	41%	-10.9%
all	22	-32.7%	-39.1%	41%	41%	-10.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover38.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-39.1%	41%	-10.9%
10% ← realistic here	-45.0%	27%	-19.4%
15%	-50.3%	23%	-27.2%
20%	-55.2%	14%	-34.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -46% → late -20% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$5

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day38.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	42¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$12	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 17	$31	−$1	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$6	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$20	+78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$11	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 17	$27	+$26	+95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$4	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 17	$1	+$1	+132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-94%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$51	+$6	+12%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1	$0	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$5	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$38	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$26	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$32	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$26	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$5	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$30	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$26	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$26	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	SELL Up	79¢	$46	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	SELL Up	78¢	$37	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	SELL Down	44¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	SELL Up	9¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$1	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 45 history records