Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec91…d72f crypto 73 markets active 3d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-3%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%37W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$14
sports 30% +$16
other 16% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.5% -6.3% 69% 62% -20.8%
≤30d 44 -38.4% -44.2% 36% 32% -30.9%
≤90d 73 -13.6% -21.8% 51% 48% -17.1%
all 73 -13.6% -21.8% 51% 48% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 48% -17.1%
10% -29.3% 42% -25.0%
15% -36.1% 33% -32.3%
20% -42.4% 22% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses37 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage30d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +43%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +132%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 31 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 31 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 31 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +126%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 16 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $8 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $6 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $4 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $18 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records