Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xec8f…8df8
crypto · 150 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$505,181 -151%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$438,881 · open −$83,271
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$231,059
Realized−$438,881
Unrealized−$83,271
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses73 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Open positions47
Markets (closed)217 / 150
History coverage30d
Avg bet$2,227
Trades / day112.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 47 History 217 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$435,433
7 days−$435,433
14 days−$435,433
30 days−$438,881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $3,841 $38,599 +$34,759 (+905%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $3,603 $34,702 +$31,099 (+863%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $4,167 $24,125 +$19,959 (+479%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $3,607 $22,835 +$19,228 (+533%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $4,166 $20,875 +$16,708 (+401%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $4,167 $19,625 +$15,459 (+371%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $4,333 $13,390 +$9,057 (+209%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3,820 $5,822 +$2,002 (+52%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4,333 $5,330 +$997 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4,166 $5,125 +$958 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $1,648 $4,795 +$3,147 (+191%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4,167 $4,125 −$42 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,167 $3,625 −$542 (-13%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,167 $3,375 −$792 (-19%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,720 $3,182 +$463 (+17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2,941 $2,558 −$382 (-13%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,333 $2,470 −$1,863 (-43%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,333 $2,210 −$2,123 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,320 $2,203 −$2,117 (-49%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,333 $1,690 −$2,643 (-61%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $1,170 −$3,163 (-73%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,166 $1,125 −$3,042 (-73%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $910 −$3,423 (-79%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,166 $875 −$3,292 (-79%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $650 −$3,683 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 21? Jun 13 $4,009 −$8,098 -202%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,333 −$4,333 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 2? Jun 13 $5,778 −$11,600 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 27? Jun 13 $5,312 −$10,639 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 3? Jun 13 $491 −$988 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 8? Jun 13 $4,857 −$9,774 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 15? Jun 13 $4,030 −$8,150 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 16? Jun 13 $3,201 −$6,452 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14? Jun 13 $352 −$721 -205%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 21? Jun 13 $3,228 −$6,533 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 27? Jun 13 $2,642 −$5,294 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 30? Jun 13 $4,086 −$8,188 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31? Jun 13 $72 −$144 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 14? Jun 13 $3,066 −$6,204 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 3? Jun 13 $754 −$1,520 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 16? Jun 13 $68 −$137 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 13? Jun 13 $5,108 −$10,299 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 7? Jun 13 $8,064 −$16,290 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 10? Jun 13 $2,292 −$4,609 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 13? Jun 13 $4,497 −$9,072 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 20? Jun 13 $1,898 −$3,824 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 6? Jun 13 $5,186 −$10,472 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 20? Jun 13 $521 −$1,066 -205%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 10? Jun 13 $969 −$1,970 -203%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 7? Jun 13 $409 −$832 -204%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 25? Jun 13 $2,014 −$4,032 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 1? Jun 13 $169 −$340 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8? Jun 13 $5,058 −$10,177 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 15? Jun 13 $2,765 −$5,560 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 9? Jun 13 $10,453 −$20,976 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 30? Jun 13 $3,059 −$6,129 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 17? Jun 13 $234 −$475 -203%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 30? Jun 13 $66 −$132 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 9? Jun 13 $5,822 −$11,673 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 24? Jun 13 $25,683 −$51,397 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 8? Jun 13 $94 −$190 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on May 6? Jun 13 $20 −$40 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 1? Jun 13 $1,407 −$2,820 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 16? Jun 13 $5,711 −$11,489 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 25? Jun 13 $34 −$69 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 2? Jun 13 $2,028 −$4,086 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 6? Jun 13 $3,681 −$7,426 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 27? Jun 13 $39 −$78 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 20? Jun 13 $486 −$991 -204%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 7? Jun 13 $2,877 −$5,811 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 27? Jun 13 $1,848 −$3,698 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 3? Jun 13 $423 −$857 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 31? Jun 13 $468 −$942 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 24? Jun 13 $18,251 −$36,511 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 13? Jun 13 $444 −$894 -201%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 86% −$83,271
crypto 14% −$3,448
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 0m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 1m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $63 1m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 1m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $40 1m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 1m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 1m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $32 2m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $48 2m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 2m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $30 3m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 3m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 3m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 3m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $80 3m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 3m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $43 5m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 217 -41.8% -47.4% 34% 15% -78.3%
≤90d 217 -41.8% -47.4% 34% 15% -78.3%
all 217 -41.8% -47.4% 34% 15% -78.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover112.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.4% 15% -78.3%
10% -52.4% 8% -80.4%
15% ← realistic here -57.0% 6% -82.3%
20% -61.2% 4% -84.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231,058.64 · official $231,081.04 (match) · 3500 history records