Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec8e…81b1 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.0% -19.5% 58% 42% -15.2%
≤30d 12 -11.0% -19.5% 58% 42% -15.2%
≤90d 12 -11.0% -19.5% 58% 42% -15.2%
all 12 -11.0% -19.5% 58% 42% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 42% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 25% -23.3%
15% -34.2% 8% -30.7%
20% -40.7% 8% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records