Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xec86…60e4 weather 429 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1315 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$28,461 (+28%) realized +$28,409 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +121% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate84%142W / 27L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day1314.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57,054now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$14,490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1315 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+99.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 +120.9% +99.8% 84% 39% +17.0%
≤30d 169 +120.9% +99.8% 84% 39% +17.0%
≤90d 169 +120.9% +99.8% 84% 39% +17.0%
all 169 +120.9% +99.8% 84% 39% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1314.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +99.8% 39% +17.0%
10% ← realistic here +80.7% 34% +5.8%
15% +63.3% 31% -4.5%
20% +47.3% 27% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +121% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +69% → late +172% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$168 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.05 per $1 lost it wins $4.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$57,054
Realized+$28,409
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses142 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions265
Markets (closed)169 / 429
History coverage2d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day1314.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 265 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,357 $1,378 +$20 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? No 92¢ 89¢ $1,243 $1,208 −$35 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,185 $1,196 +$10 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 91¢ 100¢ $1,038 $1,141 +$102 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,127 $1,135 +$8 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,087 $1,091 +$5 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,038 $1,078 +$40 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 93¢ 100¢ $953 $1,027 +$73 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,009 $1,015 +$6 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,010 +$10 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $949 $963 +$15 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 92¢ 87¢ $962 $911 −$51 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $859 $873 +$14 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? No 87¢ 88¢ $830 $840 +$10 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? No 96¢ 96¢ $840 $839 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? No 89¢ 96¢ $740 $798 +$57 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $740 $744 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $701 $726 +$25 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $623 $629 +$6 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? No 97¢ 99¢ $556 $570 +$14 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $528 $541 +$13 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? No 94¢ 95¢ $520 $527 +$7 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $509 $513 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 89¢ 95¢ $485 $512 +$27 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? No 91¢ 95¢ $450 $470 +$20 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 15 $163 −$163 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $250 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $220 +$19 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? Jun 15 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $293 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $190 +$1,007 +531%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $996 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,037 +$171 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $68 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $714 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $156 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $178 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $243 +$16 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$129 +343%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $769 +$27 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $82 +$251 +306%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,057 +$328 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $306 +$156 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $250 +$172 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $220 +$121 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $178 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $318 +$32 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$74 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,121 +$298 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $470 +$222 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $274 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $211 +$228 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $226 +$23 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $76 +$219 +288%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $625 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$105 +679%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $127 +$36 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $742 +$157 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $217 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $317 +$53 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $188 +$77 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $435 +$81 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 14 $62 +$265 +424%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $424 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $631 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $15 8m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $61 8m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $56 8m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 8m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 8m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $61 8m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $55 8m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $16 8m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $49 8m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $11 8m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $17 8m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 93¢ $33 8m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $97 8m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $41 8m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $14 8m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,054.19 · official $57,049.77 (match) · 3500 history records