Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xec82…6eaa
other · 629 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$7,260 +185%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$188 · open +$1,324
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,531
Realized+$188
Unrealized+$1,324
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses183 / 169
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions500
Markets (closed)352 / 629
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1229.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 500 History 352 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$188
14 days+$188
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? No 6¢ 58¢ $8 $78 +$70 (+859%)
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027? Yes 8¢ 36¢ $15 $70 +$54 (+350%)
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive? Yes 4¢ 35¢ $8 $69 +$61 (+744%)
Printr FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 34¢ $14 $68 +$54 (+389%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? No 10¢ 64¢ $10 $64 +$54 (+535%)
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam? No 9¢ 55¢ $10 $60 +$50 (+506%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat? No 3¢ 36¢ $4 $48 +$43 (+1029%)
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? Yes 5¢ 18¢ $13 $47 +$35 (+271%)
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? No 10¢ 43¢ $11 $46 +$36 (+339%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 5¢ 41¢ $5 $41 +$36 (+771%)
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027? Yes 6¢ 40¢ $6 $40 +$34 (+575%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Yes 0¢ 36¢ $0 $36 +$36 (+18150%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 8¢ 37¢ $7 $35 +$28 (+391%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? Yes 1¢ 35¢ $1 $35 +$34 (+3058%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? No 10¢ 44¢ $8 $33 +$26 (+340%)
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 7¢ 18¢ $14 $32 +$19 (+137%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? Yes 2¢ 24¢ $3 $31 +$28 (+847%)
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? Yes 3¢ 29¢ $3 $29 +$26 (+773%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30? Yes 3¢ 42¢ $2 $27 +$25 (+1283%)
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 4¢ 27¢ $4 $27 +$23 (+560%)
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 10¢ 32¢ $8 $27 +$18 (+225%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? No 2¢ 39¢ $1 $26 +$25 (+1865%)
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $8 $23 +$15 (+191%)
Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 6¢ 23¢ $6 $23 +$18 (+321%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +112%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +112%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $61 −$2 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -3%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +32%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $44 +$7 +15%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $33 −$9 -27%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 +$10 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -91%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 14 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $7 +$9 +121%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -50%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $17 +$9 +51%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +89%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -50%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $13 +$5 +36%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 14 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $19 +$7 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $22 −$2 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$19 +156%
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 14 $0 +$1 +611%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% +$1,263
tech 13% +$20
world 12% +$94
politics 9% +$26
finance 2% +$36
economics 1% −$6
culture 1% +$48
sports 1% +$24
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 4¢ $4 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5m
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6m
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6m
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 11m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 11m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 11m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 11m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 11m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 11m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 11m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 11m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 11m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 11m
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 11m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 22m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 7¢ $7 23m
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 26m
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL No 0¢ $0 27m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 31m
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 33m
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 34m
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 352 +60.6% +45.3% 52% 44% -4.2%
≤30d 352 +60.6% +45.3% 52% 44% -4.2%
≤90d 352 +60.6% +45.3% 52% 44% -4.2%
all 352 +60.6% +45.3% 52% 44% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1229.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.3% 44% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here +31.4% 35% -13.3%
15% +18.7% 27% -21.7%
20% +7.1% 22% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,530.56 · official $7,817.22 · 3500 history records