Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xec81…be61 crypto 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$128 (+5%) realized +$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate93%142W / 11L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$85
14 days+$75
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +5.8% -4.3% 94% 34% -4.8%
≤30d 141 +3.8% -6.1% 94% 34% -5.2%
≤90d 153 +3.4% -6.5% 93% 34% -5.2%
all 153 +3.4% -6.5% 93% 34% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 34% -5.2%
10% -15.4% 3% -14.3%
15% -23.6% 0% -22.5%
20% -31.1% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses142 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage42d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $44 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 29 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$9 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $44 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $47 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $47 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $48 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records