Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec81…daf2 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%9W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$6
politics 34% −$3
sports 15% −$1
culture 7% −$1
crypto 4% $0
world 1% −$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.5% -16.3% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 7 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 8 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 90 -6.3% -15.2% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses9 / 81
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage391d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2 $0 -21%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $48 $0 -1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $48 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $98 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $101 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $151 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 01 $51 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 11 $2 $0 -22%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Nov 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 30 $2 $0 -7%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 18 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 34h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $44 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $45 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 11d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 17d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 18d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 23d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 39d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 99d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 105d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 108d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.89 (match) · 404 history records