Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

EC 0xec7e…f3c3 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$3 (+12%) realized +$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown66%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-32.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-25.7%	-32.8%	50%	50%	+12.6%
≤30d	2	-25.7%	-32.8%	50%	50%	+12.6%
≤90d	2	-25.7%	-32.8%	50%	50%	+12.6%
all	2	-25.7%	-32.8%	50%	50%	+12.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.8%	50%	+12.6%
10%	-39.2%	50%	+1.9%
15%	-45.1%	50%	-8.0%
20%	-50.5%	0%	-17.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$13

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions6

Markets (closed)2 / 8

History coverage4d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown66%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	47¢	48¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+8%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	47¢	$3	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$2	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$2	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$2	3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.52 · official $12.52 (match) · 9 history records