Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec7d…9aa6 other 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 51L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$8
other 30% −$12
world 17% −$10
economics 11% −$4
politics 5% +$2
tech 4% +$21
crypto 1% +$2
finance 1% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 16 -0.7% -10.2% 19% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 29 -0.5% -10.0% 28% 0% -9.5%
all 79 +0.3% -9.3% 35% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage475d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $127 $127 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $173 +$1 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $66 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $184 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $128 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $142 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $129 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $143 −$2 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $143 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $130 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $76 −$6 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $145 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $64 −$4 -6%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $160 +$3 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $341 +$21 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $141 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $918 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $918 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,920 +$8 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $917 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $205 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 10 $923 −$13 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 13 $15 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win 3-0? Jul 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $127 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $68 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $59 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $126 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $47 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $46 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $44 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $43 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $43 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $51 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $125 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $126 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $128 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $140 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $140 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $104 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $104 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $140 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $142 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $129 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $103 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $26 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $142 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.12 · official $127.12 (match) · 293 history records