Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EC 0xec7c…7ad4 crypto 1516 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$733 (-11%) realized −$735 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%766W / 748L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day122.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$160
14 days−$104
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$85
sports 13% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -21.0% -28.6% 31% 22% -25.5%
≤30d 1514 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 47% -11.4%
≤90d 1514 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 47% -11.4%
all 1514 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 47% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 47% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 43% -19.9%
15% -26.6% 35% -27.6%
20% -33.8% 25% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$735
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses766 / 748
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1514 / 1516
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day122.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 53¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $4 $0 +10%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $3 +$1 +21%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $6 $0 -2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $8 +$2 +28%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $3 +$2 +92%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $2 $0 -29%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $2 −$1 -69%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$1 -15%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $5 −$2 -41%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 $0 -13%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -65%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$1 -31%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $2 +$1 +73%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$3 -41%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$1 -15%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $6 $0 -7%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 $0 -24%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $7 −$1 -11%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 16 $6 −$2 -34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$1 +23%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 37¢ $2 35m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 53¢ $3 36m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 56¢ $3 36m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 86¢ $4 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 77¢ $4 55m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 67¢ $3 58m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 55¢ $3 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $3 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 75¢ $4 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $4 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $2 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 23¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 21¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 77¢ $4 3h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 77¢ $4 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 54¢ $3 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 21¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 23¢ $1 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 53¢ $3 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $3 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $2 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 78¢ $4 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 78¢ $4 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 81¢ $4 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 73¢ $4 5h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming $0 5h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 21¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 18¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records