Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec7a…a1f2 crypto 1361 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,601 (-3%) realized −$14,614 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%790W / 570L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$714est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$13,587
sports 42% −$10,229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +17.3% +6.1% 70% 67% -5.3%
≤30d 448 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 53% -14.5%
≤90d 959 -13.5% -21.7% 54% 48% -17.0%
all 1360 -2.9% -12.1% 58% 53% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 53% -14.5%
10% -20.5% 46% -22.7%
15% -28.2% 35% -30.2%
20% -35.3% 26% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$210 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$14,614
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses790 / 570
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$714
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1360 / 1361
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$316
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Max Alcala Gurri 84¢ 100¢ $66 $79 +$13 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $147 +$23 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$12 +25%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $45 +$21 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $58 +$18 +31%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $75 −$21 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$12 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $73 −$63 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $134 −$31 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $176 +$64 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $127 −$16 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$63 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$42 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$48 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$21 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $67 +$33 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$20 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $121 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $38 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $55 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $29 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $71 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $42 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 53m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 84¢ $66 57m
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $49 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 68¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 60¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 82¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.66 · official $73.19 · 3500 history records