Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec75…b90f world 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%42W / 49L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$13
other 27% +$1
politics 14% $0
sports 12% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 11% -8.9%
≤30d 30 +2.3% -7.4% 47% 10% -8.5%
≤90d 79 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 4% -9.1%
all 91 -0.9% -10.4% 46% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -9.1%
10% -18.9% 1% -17.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses42 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage483d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $83 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $48 +$1 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $51 +$2 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $7 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $179 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $81 +$3 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $93 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $77 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $29 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $12 +$2 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $79 +$7 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $1 $0 +29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $149 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $52 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $21 $0 +2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $23 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $21 $0 -1%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 14 $1 $0 -32%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $24 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $4 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $28 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $55 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $18 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $22 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $4 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $24 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $21 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $36 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $23 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $45 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $28 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $21 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $9 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $42 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $0.00 · 367 history records