Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec75…55a1 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$563 (-6%) realized −$563 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%16W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$570per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$7
sports 26% −$577
crypto 13% +$1
culture 7% +$6
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 17 -5.7% -14.7% 94% 0% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -14.8%
10% -22.8% 0% -22.9%
15% -30.3% 0% -30.4%
20% -37.1% 0% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$659) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$583 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$563
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses16 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage101d
Avg bet$570
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $663 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $663 +$1 +0%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $661 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $661 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $659 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $650 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $655 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 27 $656 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $650 +$1 +0%
Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the May 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 11 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 02 $654 +$1 +0%
Will "Black and Blue" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Apr 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will "Anaconda" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Apr 22 $550 +$6 +1%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $645 +$3 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $583 −$583 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 9-15? Mar 17 $582 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records