Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec74…f297 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$2
other 16% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 8% −$8
economics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 13 +2.6% -7.2% 31% 15% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 13% -10.5%
all 31 -7.4% -16.2% 32% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 6% -10.9%
10% -24.2% 3% -19.5%
15% -31.5% 0% -27.2%
20% -38.2% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage446d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -17%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +20%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Mar 31 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Mar 31 $19 −$2 -11%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jun 22 $1 $0 -22%
Will Al Gore be named in Epstein files? Jun 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -9%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jun 20 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
U.S. recession before May 2025? Apr 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $23 $0 +1%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $29 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $34 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $29 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $29 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records