Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:16:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec70…961b sports 704 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$306 (-2%) realized −$305 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate76%522W / 169L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$41
14 days+$39
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$134
sports 14% +$1
finance 4% −$50
other 3% −$55
politics 2% −$9
crypto 2% −$3
culture 2% −$3
economics 1% −$1
weather 0% −$6
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +15.3% +4.4% 87% 12% -7.5%
≤30d 368 +0.2% -9.4% 79% 8% -10.6%
≤90d 433 +1.2% -8.4% 77% 9% -10.5%
all 691 -2.7% -11.9% 76% 8% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 8% -11.3%
10% -20.4% 5% -19.8%
15% -28.0% 4% -27.5%
20% -35.1% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses522 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)691 / 704
History coverage169d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 98¢ 97¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Jun 22 $1 +$49 +4757%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $3 $0 -2%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $2 −$1 -67%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $4 −$4 -86%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2. Jun 20 $1 $0 +18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 A Jun 20 $1 $0 +14%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +64%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $1 +$1 +83%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $5 +$1 +11%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 19 $2 −$1 -52%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2 −$2 -73%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Gilberto Mora: 5+ shots AND Son Heungmin: 5+ shots AND Julián Quiñones Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Ali Ahmed: 5+ shots AND Mohammed Muntari: 5+ shots AND Jacob Shaffelbu Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Christian Fassnacht: 5+ shots AND Zeki Amdouni: 5+ shots AND Cédric It Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Pavel Šulc: 5+ shots AND Vladimír Darida: 5+ shots AND Mojmír Chytil: Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $7 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $32 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY $1 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Po BUY $1 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 51¢ $1 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $10 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $14 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $10 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $10 10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 13¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 48¢ $2 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 68¢ $3 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $3 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 25h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Mariano Navone 13¢ $1 26h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 38¢ $2 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 37¢ $2 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 61¢ $3 28h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 50¢ $2 28h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $2 28h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 37¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.32 · official $46.98 · 2122 history records