Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec6f…96a3 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% $0
politics 29% −$1
sports 13% −$1
crypto 8% $0
world 5% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage177d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $115 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $116 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $116 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $117 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 28 $235 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $235 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 16 $236 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $236 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 10 $236 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $236 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $236 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $236 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 06 $236 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 04 $222 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 31 $230 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $226 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $114 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $114 14h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 8d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $114 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $114 22d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $114 27d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $115 28d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $115 35d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $116 35d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $116 41d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $116 42d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 44d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 45d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 46d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 47d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $117 66d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $117 66d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $117 68d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $117 68d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $236 87d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $235 87d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $235 95d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $235 95d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? SELL No 99¢ $235 98d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $236 99d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $236 101d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $72 102d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $90 102d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $74 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records