Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EC 0xec6c…5e39 sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$118 (+17%) realized +$118 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%29W / 56L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$108
other 43% −$4
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -27.6% -34.5% 25% 25% -24.3%
≤30d 22 -21.5% -28.9% 27% 27% -25.5%
≤90d 85 +12.5% +1.8% 34% 33% +5.6%
all 85 +12.5% +1.8% 34% 33% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 33% +5.6%
10% -8.0% 33% -4.5%
15% -16.8% 32% -13.7%
20% -25.0% 32% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 56
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage55d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$18 +344%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $15 +$4 +28%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $5 +$5 +94%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$41 +794%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $10 $0 -4%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? May 24 $10 +$19 +188%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 24 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $10 +$12 +119%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $10 +$12 +117%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $5 +$18 +344%
ITF Wuning: Yingqun Sun vs Yidi Yang May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $10 +$9 +85%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $10 +$16 +158%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 22 $5 +$12 +238%
Will ADC Juan Pablo II College win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 29h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 19d
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 20d
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 20d
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 20d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 20d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 22d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 22d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners SELL New York Mets 43¢ $10 22d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY New York Mets 44¢ $10 22d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL Yes $0 22d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 22d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 22d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes $5 22d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $20 28d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 28d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 28d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 30d
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 30d
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago White Sox 32¢ $5 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.20 · official $20.20 (match) · 153 history records