Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec68…21ca sports 347 markets active 2h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%24W / 322L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$22
14 days−$32
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$14
other 26% −$20
politics 26% −$15
crypto 6% −$10
economics 5% −$3
world 2% −$2
culture 2% −$3
tech 1% −$7
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 84 -0.8% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 91 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.1%
all 346 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses24 / 322
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)346 / 347
History coverage652d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $172 −$5 -3%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 18 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $53 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha Jun 17 $43 −$2 -5%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $24 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $270 −$3 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $54 $0 -1%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $63 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $146 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $60 −$1 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $331 −$3 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $7 $0 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $253 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $124 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $57 −$4 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 04 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $47 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $59 1h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $49 2h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $50 8h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 8h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 14h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 15h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 19h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 96¢ $26 19h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $26 24h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $53 25h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $53 32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $46 32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $46 39h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha SELL No 92¢ $41 40h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 96¢ $43 45h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 45h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $58 2d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $24 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $65 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.02 · official $59.02 (match) · 1308 history records