Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec64…17c9 other 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$467 (+1%) realized +$464 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate69%279W / 127L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$140
14 days+$182
30 days+$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$564
crypto 3% −$68
other 3% −$33
sports 0% +$6
world 0% +$2
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.5% -18.1% 82% 18% -5.8%
≤30d 26 -5.0% -14.0% 88% 15% -7.5%
≤90d 94 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 28% -7.8%
all 406 +1.0% -8.6% 69% 44% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 44% -8.2%
10% -17.4% 38% -17.0%
15% -25.3% 31% -25.0%
20% -32.7% 25% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$703
Realized+$464
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses279 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)406 / 410
History coverage506d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 82¢ 90¢ $400 $436 +$36 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-46%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $301 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $300 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $501 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $335 +$181 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $351 +$17 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $504 +$89 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $92 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $588 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $800 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $67 +$18 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $800 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $48 +$14 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $842 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $834 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $800 +$21 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $807 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $806 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 23? May 23 $803 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 22? May 22 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $688 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 21? May 21 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 20? May 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 15? May 16 $788 +$2 +0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $785 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on May 12? May 12 $782 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 8? May 08 $780 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7? May 07 $770 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 6? May 06 $768 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 2? May 02 $760 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 1? May 01 $146 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 1? May 01 $600 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30? Apr 30 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 30? Apr 30 $630 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 29? Apr 29 $728 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 28? Apr 29 $723 +$6 +1%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 27 $207 +$30 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 26? Apr 27 $687 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 24? Apr 26 $687 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 23? Apr 24 $678 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 22? Apr 23 $675 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 21? Apr 22 $671 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 20? Apr 21 $666 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 19? Apr 20 $652 +$14 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 16? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $404 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $301 33h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $216 42h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $201 47h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $300 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $514 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $102 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $501 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $367 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $335 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $351 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $92 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $504 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $588 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 87¢ $101 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5? BUY No 78¢ $67 12d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $800 12d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 3? BUY No 76¢ $48 14d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $800 14d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $842 14d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $834 16d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 29? BUY No 97¢ $800 19d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 28? BUY No 99¢ $807 20d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $806 22d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $803 25d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 22? BUY No 98¢ $108 26d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on May 21? BUY No 99¢ $688 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $702.55 · official $702.55 (match) · 768 history records