Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec62…4c7c world 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$16
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$3
other 10% +$6
politics 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
sports 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 32 -0.0% -9.5% 41% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 41 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 2% -9.5%
all 93 -0.4% -9.8% 37% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage453d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $178 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $185 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $368 +$5 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $174 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $156 +$3 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $172 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $144 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $151 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $396 +$4 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $162 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $161 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $68 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $145 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $434 −$7 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $25 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $146 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $168 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $171 −$4 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1,143 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $3 $0 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $326 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $272 +$19 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $69 −$28 -41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $6 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $128 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $155 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $152 +$3 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $57 −$4 -8%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 12 $16 +$1 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $989 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $121 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $2,073 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 29 $990 +$1 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $19 $0 -1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $175 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $175 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $175 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $175 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $144 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $148 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $175 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $174 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $158 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $114 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $172 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $172 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $79 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $22 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $52 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $144 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $126 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $129 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $95 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records