Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec62…4a64 crypto 313 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$131 (-7%) realized −$134 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%161W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$57
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -3.0% -12.3% 50% 49% -13.5%
≤30d 310 -8.6% -17.3% 52% 46% -17.1%
≤90d 312 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 46% -18.7%
all 312 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 46% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 46% -18.7%
10% -25.7% 32% -26.4%
15% -32.9% 25% -33.6%
20% -39.4% 19% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses161 / 151
Open positions1
Markets (closed)312 / 313
History coverage32d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 0¢ 48¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$7 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.72 · official $34.72 (match) · 902 history records