Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec61…f8a1 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+7%) realized +$60 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.9% +13.9% 75% 75% +7.9%
≤30d 4 +25.9% +13.9% 75% 75% +7.9%
≤90d 4 +25.9% +13.9% 75% 75% +7.9%
all 4 +25.9% +13.9% 75% 75% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.9% 75% +7.9%
10% ← realistic here +3.0% 75% -2.4%
15% -7.0% 75% -11.9%
20% -16.1% 50% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$106 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner K27 12¢ 47¢ $24 $94 +$70 (+292%)
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner Gen.G Global Academy 34¢ 25¢ $38 $28 −$10 (-26%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $67 +$33 +49%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $71 +$49 +69%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $108 +$92 +85%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 12¢ $24 14m
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 34¢ $8 17m
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 34¢ $8 17m
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 34¢ $8 17m
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 34¢ $8 17m
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 34¢ $8 17m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $42 46m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $17 52m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $26 52m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $100 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 67¢ $67 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $120 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 56¢ $30 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 56¢ $4 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 62¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 62¢ $35 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $200 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 54¢ $98 5h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 54¢ $7 5h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 54¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 54¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $11 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $13 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $0 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.10 · official $133.66 · 33 history records