Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EC 0xec5e…3e59 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$337 (+32%) realized +$340 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate100%15W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$200
30 days+$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$330
other 36% −$3
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +62.9% +47.3% 100% 100% +42.6%
≤90d 10 +19.4% +8.1% 100% 30% +36.5%
all 15 +13.0% +2.3% 100% 20% +32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 20% +32.0%
10% -7.5% 20% +19.3%
15% -16.4% 13% +7.8%
20% -24.6% 7% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$340
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses15 / 0
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage169d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $319 $315 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $176 +$200 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $87 +$40 +46%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 20 $310 +$90 +29%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Apr 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Apr 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on January 10? Jan 13 $14 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Jan 08 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.40 · official $315.40 (match) · 33 history records