Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec5d…d7b4 crypto 328 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86,508 (-466%) realized −$86,140 · open −$368
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%93W / 655L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,133
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-71.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 440 -96.3% -96.6% 2% 2% -96.5%
≤30d 440 -96.3% -96.6% 2% 2% -96.5%
≤90d 748 -67.9% -71.0% 12% 11% -71.6%
all 748 -67.9% -71.0% 12% 11% -71.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -71.0% 11% -71.6%
10% ← realistic here -73.8% 9% -74.3%
15% -76.3% 7% -76.8%
20% -78.6% 5% -79.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$59 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$86,140
Unrealized−$368
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses93 / 655
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)748 / 328
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 748 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET Down 77¢ 52¢ $236 $159 −$77 (-33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET Up 23¢ 32¢ $23 $32 +$8 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $237 $0 −$236 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 6PM ET Jun 26 $186 −$186 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 5PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 7AM ET Jun 26 $349 −$349 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 20, 4AM ET Jun 26 $78 −$78 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 4PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 8PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 6AM ET Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 2AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 9PM ET Jun 26 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 12AM ET Jun 26 $383 −$383 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 5PM ET Jun 26 $147 −$147 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 2PM ET Jun 26 $151 −$151 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 7PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 10PM ET Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 6PM ET Jun 26 $264 −$264 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 5AM ET Jun 26 $273 −$273 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 6PM ET Jun 26 $164 −$164 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 5PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 3PM ET Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 2AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 8PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 6AM ET Jun 26 $555 −$555 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 2AM ET Jun 26 $63 −$63 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 11PM ET Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 4PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 3PM ET Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 10PM ET Jun 26 $112 −$112 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 11PM ET Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 8AM ET Jun 26 $111 −$111 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 10, 6AM ET Jun 26 $130 −$130 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 5PM ET Jun 26 $83 −$83 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 5PM ET Jun 26 $89 −$89 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $24 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $78 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $79 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $78 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $27 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $19 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $15 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $34 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $34 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $27 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $22 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $87 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $78 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.58 · official $190.26 (match) · 3500 history records