Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EC 0xec5c…ce46 sports 1053 markets active 2h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19,474 (-7%) realized −$19,473 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%494W / 552L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$433est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days−$17,932
14 days−$16,323
30 days−$11,153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$9,077
other 24% −$11,669
world 0% +$257
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -61.2% -64.9% 21% 21% -79.7%
≤30d 99 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 41% -36.8%
≤90d 274 -9.3% -18.0% 46% 45% -23.1%
all 1046 -10.5% -19.0% 47% 41% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 41% -16.0%
10% -26.8% 35% -24.0%
15% -33.9% 27% -31.3%
20% -40.4% 21% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$164 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$19,473
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses494 / 552
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$433
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1046 / 1053
History coverage581d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1046 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$49 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$196 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$42 +21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$24 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$100 +196%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$18 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $406 −$99 -24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $910 −$841 -92%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $101 +$45 +44%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $353 +$95 +27%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-05-10? Jun 14 $410 −$410 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $297 −$297 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 14 $306 −$306 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-05-04? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $611 −$611 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $510 −$510 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $614 −$14 -2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 14 $601 −$601 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $1,408 −$1,408 -100%
Will Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $817 −$817 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $1,117 −$1,117 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 14 $4,985 −$4,985 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $1,513 −$546 -36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $708 −$708 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $508 −$508 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $608 −$608 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 14 $267 −$267 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $244 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $75 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $151 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $103 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $118 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $306 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $406 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 20¢ $102 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 6¢ $108 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 202 BUY 4¢ $103 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 5¢ $68 5d
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $146 6d
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $910 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 78¢ $323 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $205 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.96 · official $98.96 (match) · 3348 history records