Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xec5a…cd56 sports 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,061 (-9%) realized −$3,061 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%86W / 96L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$461est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,852
7 days−$2,822
14 days−$2,822
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$3,810
other 8% +$465
politics 7% +$44
finance 2% +$9
culture 1% +$7
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -47.3% -52.3% 25% 25% -52.7%
≤30d 68 +30.7% +18.3% 49% 46% -12.2%
≤90d 165 +15.6% +4.6% 44% 41% -19.3%
all 182 +14.3% +3.4% 47% 37% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 37% -18.0%
10% -6.5% 36% -25.9%
15% -15.5% 32% -33.0%
20% -23.8% 30% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +15% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$142 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,061
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses86 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$461
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage108d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Moutet vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 18 $99 −$3 -3%
Ostapenko vs. Linette: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Boulter vs. Potapova: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Stariy Bog Club vs TPaBoMaH Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 18 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $476 −$476 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik Jun 18 $347 −$347 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 18 $254 −$254 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 18 $506 −$506 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $385 −$385 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs SemperFi Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $239 +$153 +64%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $255 +$172 +67%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $598 +$344 +58%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $2 +$1 +73%
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $219 +$78 +35%
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $195 +$44 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $269 −$30 -11%
Leonard vs. Charaeva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +93%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $321 −$52 -16%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $194 −$13 -7%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner May 28 $142 +$122 +86%
Grabher vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 21.5 May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Grabher vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 22.5 May 27 $6 $0 -9%
Boulter vs. Potapova: Match O/U 22.5 May 27 $9 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs CSGOPOSITIVE (BO3) - Exort Series Main S May 27 $1 +$4 +302%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $298 +$46 +16%
Colton Smith vs. Trevor Svajda: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $127 +$72 +56%
Kosice: Maks Kasnikowski vs Franco Roncadelli May 26 $582 +$317 +55%
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 26 $22 +$23 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $50 +$18 +36%
Bennani vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 21.5 May 26 $0 +$8 +4757%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $743 +$421 +57%
Map Handicap: AUR.YB (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy Black (+1.5) May 22 $35 +$35 +101%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Tricked - Map 1 Winner May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs Guara Esports - Map 1 Winner May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs Martians (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Grou May 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton May 22 $54 −$54 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 22 $199 −$199 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 22 $198 −$198 -100%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) May 22 $354 −$354 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Moutet vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 1¢ $21 50m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $393 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 51¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 62¢ $35 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 62¢ $76 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 62¢ $106 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $105 16h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $2 16h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $2 16h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $194 16h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $173 16h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 29¢ $94 25h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $941 46h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $148 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 70¢ $40 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 65¢ $0 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 65¢ $20 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $170 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 67¢ $3 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 67¢ $3 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 67¢ $3 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 67¢ $19 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 67¢ $3 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 67¢ $35 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 60¢ $152 47h
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 99¢ $297 2d
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 99¢ $239 2d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 59¢ $255 2d
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 81¢ $122 2d
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 79¢ $73 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 590 history records