Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:14:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec59…bb35 sports 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (178 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,343 (+1%) realized +$2,077 · open +$1,266
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%78W / 79L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$1,741per market
Trades / day178.4pace
Fees−$2,891est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$8,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$14,342
other 23% +$60
tech 4% +$260
crypto 3% +$42,257
world 1% +$1,777
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (178 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -15.3% -23.3% 45% 44% -22.0%
≤30d 157 +0.6% -8.9% 50% 46% -0.0%
≤90d 157 +0.6% -8.9% 50% 46% -0.0%
all 157 +0.6% -8.9% 50% 46% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover178.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 46% -0.0%
10% -17.7% 43% -9.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 39% -18.3%
20% -32.9% 34% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$2,120) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,898 vs −$1,510 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$8,354
Realized+$2,077
Unrealized+$1,266
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses78 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,891
Open positions4
Markets (closed)157 / 164
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$1,741
Trades / day178.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3,049 $4,125 +$1,075 (+35%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $2,944 $3,059 +$115 (+4%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 36¢ 38¢ $1,080 $1,155 +$75 (+7%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $870 +$2,130 +245%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $6,575 +$1,925 +29%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3,207 +$1,893 +59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,120 +$1,880 +89%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $4,160 +$2,840 +68%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,770 +$1,230 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $847 +$213 +25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $568 +$87 +15%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,195 +$1,305 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4,175 −$863 -21%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $545 −$545 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $840 −$840 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2,555 −$2,555 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,825 −$1,825 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,625 −$775 -30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,450 −$1,450 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,191 −$1,191 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,690 +$310 +18%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,003 +$1,839 +183%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,433 +$1,467 +102%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,072 −$1,072 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,916 −$1,916 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $828 −$828 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,750 −$1,750 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,120 −$2,120 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,341 +$1,959 +146%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $2,318 +$138 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,395 +$1,105 +79%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,550 +$450 +18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,340 +$660 +49%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $882 −$882 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,537 −$1,537 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $930 −$930 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,010 −$2,010 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,642 −$1,642 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $725 −$725 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,655 −$1,655 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,040 −$3,040 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,432 −$1,432 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 18 $1,340 −$1,340 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1m
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 13m
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 18m
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 22m
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 36m
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 37m
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 37m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $260 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $45 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $22 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $53 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $56 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $62 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $53 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $353 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $35 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $21 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $408 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $6 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $22 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 29¢ $60 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $18 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,353.72 · official $8,353.72 (match) · 3500 history records