Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec56…1816 sports 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1532 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$47,797 (-93%) realized −$47,390 · open −$407
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +127% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +75% what you keep after slip
Net edge+75%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%68W / 68L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day1531.6pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$12,224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$8,211
other 26% +$10,025
crypto 2% −$46
world 1% −$36
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1532 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+105.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +127.4% +105.7% 50% 39% -7.8%
≤30d 136 +127.4% +105.7% 50% 39% -7.8%
≤90d 136 +127.4% +105.7% 50% 39% -7.8%
all 136 +127.4% +105.7% 50% 39% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1531.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +105.7% 39% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here +86.0% 32% -16.6%
15% +68.1% 26% -24.6%
20% +51.6% 22% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +127% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +171% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$310 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$12,224
Realized−$47,390
Unrealized−$407
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses68 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions67
Markets (closed)136 / 172
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$300
Trades / day1531.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,249 $2,250 +$1 (+0%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 93¢ $1,785 $1,742 −$42 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,504 $1,513 +$8 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $1,355 $1,364 +$8 (+1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $1,117 $1,110 −$7 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 81¢ 81¢ $928 $929 +$2 (+0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $536 $529 −$6 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 31¢ 28¢ $520 $478 −$42 (-8%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 22¢ $685 $421 −$264 (-39%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $294 $272 −$22 (-7%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 30¢ $246 $254 +$8 (+3%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $189 $187 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $153 $156 +$3 (+2%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $138 $144 +$7 (+5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 54¢ 57¢ $129 $136 +$7 (+6%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $77 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 75¢ 72¢ $62 $59 −$3 (-4%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 82¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 56¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $55 $21 −$34 (-61%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $28 $19 −$8 (-30%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $1 +$10 +1334%
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$4 -683%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $0 −$12 -4458%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 $0 +28%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 −$7 -3503%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 $0 -253%
Spread: Burnley FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1350%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 −$40 -19947%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 −$16 -7596%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 −$4 -3268%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +128%
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1365%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -149%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 −$3 -9272%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 +$10 +11802%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $0 −$43 -10593%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 −$13 -10235%
Liverpool FC leading at halftime? Jun 17 $0 −$4 -1508%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 −$4 -13208%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 17 $0 +$5 +1217%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1498%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 −$89 -55502%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 −$37 -7869%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +5147%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $706 +$36 +5%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$23 +239%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $88 +$14 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $119 +$62 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $104 −$17 -17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 −$4 -44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $28 +$2 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$14 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $175 +$52 +30%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $293 +$432 +148%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,771 +$1,664 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +21%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$2 -26%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 +$24 +159%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$21 +142%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $78 +$18 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $76 +$3 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $173 +$509 +295%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $381 −$242 -63%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $618 +$781 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $11 2m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $2 4m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $8 4m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $4 4m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $1 7m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $2 7m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 7m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 7m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $18 7m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $3 9m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $7 16m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 19m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $14 21m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $12 23m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 24m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $4 24m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $31 25m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $31 27m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $3 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $8 30m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $6 34m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 34m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $3 34m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $5 36m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 38m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $4 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 40m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $4 41m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $3 44m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,223.50 · official $12,220.59 (match) · 3500 history records