Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec56…f790 crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$196 (-2%) realized −$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%56W / 58L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$173
14 days−$172
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 37% −$4
politics 31% −$7
crypto 15% −$18
world 14% −$169
other 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.2% -13.4% 33% 0% -19.7%
≤30d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 73% 47% -19.6%
≤90d 49 -14.8% -22.9% 55% 41% -19.4%
all 114 -10.7% -19.2% 49% 36% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 36% -11.2%
10% -26.9% 30% -19.7%
15% -34.0% 23% -27.5%
20% -40.5% 14% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses56 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage219d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,433 −$169 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 09 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 10 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 30 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $97 1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $29 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $200 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $200 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $200 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $200 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $200 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $200 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $148 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $189 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $200 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $223 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $200 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $200 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 285 history records