Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec54…3181 crypto 515 markets active 4d ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$747 (-9%) realized −$747 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%250W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$61
14 days−$77
30 days−$523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$516
other 17% −$170
economics 9% +$2
politics 9% −$9
world 5% −$55
weather 2% −$35
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -12.7% -21.0% 54% 45% -14.7%
≤30d 481 -16.3% -24.3% 50% 46% -19.1%
≤90d 498 -16.5% -24.5% 49% 45% -21.6%
all 514 -16.1% -24.1% 49% 43% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 43% -18.2%
10% -31.4% 25% -26.0%
15% -38.0% 4% -33.2%
20% -44.1% 3% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$747
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses250 / 264
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)514 / 515
History coverage193d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 514 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$8 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$5 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$8 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2021 history records