Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xec53…9c1d
crypto · 89 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$155 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$162 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$99
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage101d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $45 $65 +$20 (+45%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 80¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 36¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $19 +$14 +76%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 17 $40 −$40 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 13 $30 −$18 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 13 $16 −$9 -59%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 03 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $30 +$15 +49%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 01 $75 +$4 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 01 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 26 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 21 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 21 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 17 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 17 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 17 $6 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$31
politics 20% −$84
sports 13% +$25
world 11% −$48
finance 8% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $30 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $33 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 59d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 70d
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 3, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 70d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 70d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL No 82¢ $14 70d
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 70d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 71d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY No 80¢ $40 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 72d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? SELL No 64¢ $24 72d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? SELL No 50¢ $29 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 72d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 72d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No 65¢ $25 72d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? SELL No 64¢ $55 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 73d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 77d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +75.8% +59.1% 100% 100% +59.1%
≤30d 1 +75.8% +59.1% 100% 100% +59.1%
≤90d 79 -11.4% -19.9% 48% 43% -14.0%
all 84 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 42% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 42% -20.0%
10% -28.1% 30% -27.7%
15% -35.0% 24% -34.6%
20% -41.4% 18% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.32 · official $99.32 (match) · 305 history records