Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec52…f12e other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$1
other 33% $0
politics 14% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 18% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 18% 0% -10.1%
all 29 -5.3% -14.3% 34% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage451d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 08 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jul 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $24 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 04 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $36 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $32 16h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $6 19h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $26 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $15 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $18 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $33 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $33 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $22 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $37 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $38 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.90 · official $36.90 (match) · 78 history records