Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

EC 0xec4c…fb48 other 20 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d

BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$29,076 (+23%) realized +$28,599 · open +$477

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%5W / 14L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6,436per market

Trades / day91.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$9,257now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$12,450

7 days+$22,131

14 days+$28,571

30 days+$28,571

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)+3.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+27.0%	+14.9%	29%	29%	+9.7%
≤30d	19	+14.1%	+3.2%	26%	26%	+12.2%
≤90d	19	+14.1%	+3.2%	26%	26%	+12.2%
all	19	+14.1%	+3.2%	26%	26%	+12.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover91.7 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+3.2%	26%	+12.2%
10%	-6.6%	26%	+1.4%
15% ← realistic here	-15.7%	26%	-8.4%
20%	-23.9%	26%	-17.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$10,951) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +11% → late +17% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

45.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$22,115 vs −$5,857 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.35 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$9,257

Realized+$28,599

Unrealized+$477

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses5 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage10d

Avg bet$6,436

Trades / day91.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	No	46¢	48¢	$8,780	$9,257	+$477 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$15,809	+$27,294	+173%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$14,879	−$14,844	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$5,826	−$5,710	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$10,951	+$53,032	+484%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$8,052	−$7,900	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$2,707	−$2,681	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$8,487	−$8,360	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$3,501	+$7,439	+212%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$11,040	−$11,040	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$15,688	−$15,687	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$1,383	+$7,029	+508%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$2,326	−$2,280	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$2,362	−$2,362	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$1,800	−$1,800	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$5,929	−$5,800	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5,435	+$15,779	+290%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2,561	−$2,501	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1,058	−$1,037	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	46¢	$8,485	2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	46¢	$437	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	36¢	$2,058	12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	36¢	$1,305	13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	36¢	$3,934	13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	36¢	$4,688	13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	36¢	$5	14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	36¢	$3,818	14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$1,610	28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$3,269	30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$2,767	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$6	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$6	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$9	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$96	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$5	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$52	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$4	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$8	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$6	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$5	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$8	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$3	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$6	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$3	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$3	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$3	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$7	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$65	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	25¢	$8	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,257.17 · official $9,257.17 (match) · 919 history records