Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec48…83a2 other 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,923 (+1%) realized +$1,924 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%41W / 135L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$1,201per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$68
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$1,783
politics 36% −$93
sports 6% +$127
culture 3% −$6
economics 2% $0
world 1% +$74
tech 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 46 -3.4% -12.6% 11% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.7% 8% 4% -8.5%
all 176 +2.1% -7.6% 23% 14% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 14% -8.7%
10% -16.4% 12% -17.4%
15% -24.5% 11% -25.4%
20% -31.9% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,557) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$8 · ×9.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,438
Realized+$1,924
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses41 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)176 / 177
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,201
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,439 $1,438 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $2,501 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,812 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,211 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,699 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,904 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,268 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $254 +$4 +2%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,104 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,359 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,069 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,979 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,389 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5,355 −$7 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $42 +$64 +152%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,230 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $738 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $265 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $349 +$1 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $278 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,022 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $272 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $249 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,892 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,234 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $6,846 −$7 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $507 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $635 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $56 +$54 +97%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $2,364 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $889 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,089 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $713 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,439 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,121 19h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,123 21h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $986 23h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $988 25h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,209 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,211 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,444 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,445 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,165 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,167 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $844 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $845 4d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,153 6d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,155 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,103 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,104 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $254 8d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $979 8d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $981 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $809 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $810 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,386 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,388 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $818 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $819 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,438.06 · official $1,438.06 (match) · 643 history records