Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EC 0xec47…0c22 other 330 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$200 (+5%) realized +$266 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%105W / 131L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$66
14 days+$200
30 days+$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 27% −$163
other 22% +$81
world 21% +$27
politics 16% +$156
sports 9% +$28
tech 4% +$11
crypto 2% −$17
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -9.4% -18.0% 39% 30% -0.2%
≤30d 236 +5.5% -4.6% 44% 33% -1.3%
≤90d 236 +5.5% -4.6% 44% 33% -1.3%
all 236 +5.5% -4.6% 44% 33% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 33% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 29% -10.8%
15% -22.0% 27% -19.4%
20% -29.7% 23% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$860
Realized+$266
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses105 / 131
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions94
Markets (closed)236 / 330
History coverage39d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 94 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $139 $143 +$4 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $66 $73 +$6 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $84 $51 −$33 (-39%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $39 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $25 $38 +$13 (+53%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $32 $25 −$7 (-22%)
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 41¢ 72¢ $12 $22 +$9 (+76%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? Yes 41¢ 31¢ $22 $17 −$6 (-25%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 97¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Baidu have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? No 76¢ 70¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27? Yes 20¢ 11¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 27 $20 +$3 +17%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 27 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $86 −$77 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 26 $24 −$6 -25%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $47 +$16 +34%
Norway vs. France: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 +$30 +312%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -95%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 26 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $41 +$21 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 26 Jun 26 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C on June 26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 26 $24 +$17 +71%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 25 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 25 $9 −$4 -44%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 25 $9 +$6 +67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$33 +322%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 25 $9 +$6 +68%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $13 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 +$7 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 $0 -95%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $40 −$12 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$11 +627%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? SELL No 69¢ $19 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? SELL No 69¢ $11 34m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 39¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 43¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primar BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? BUY No 63¢ $3 5h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $859.86 · official $858.91 (match) · 957 history records