Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec41…1134 sports 658 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,597 (+3%) realized +$3,360 · open +$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate64%430W / 242L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$518est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5,291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$1,699
other 13% +$1,233
politics 2% +$97
world 1% +$36
crypto 1% +$8
economics 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -2.9% -12.2% 25% 19% -1.0%
≤30d 126 +17.3% +6.1% 43% 29% -10.7%
≤90d 526 +20.8% +9.3% 63% 32% -10.9%
all 672 +25.5% +13.6% 64% 31% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.6% 31% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here +2.7% 23% -18.6%
15% -7.2% 18% -26.5%
20% -16.3% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$49 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$5,291
Realized+$3,360
Unrealized+$237
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses430 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$518
Open positions19
Markets (closed)672 / 658
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$195
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $1,192 $1,321 +$128 (+11%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 80¢ $730 $792 +$62 (+9%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $634 $654 +$20 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $551 $633 +$82 (+15%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $356 $400 +$44 (+12%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 65¢ 79¢ $260 $316 +$56 (+21%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 46¢ $408 $292 −$117 (-29%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 88¢ $146 $175 +$29 (+20%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 49¢ $162 $149 −$12 (-8%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $126 $138 +$11 (+9%)
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $94 $112 +$19 (+20%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 51¢ 68¢ $51 $68 +$18 (+34%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 20¢ $185 $61 −$123 (-67%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 56¢ $28 $56 +$28 (+102%)
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? No 68¢ 90¢ $34 $45 +$11 (+32%)
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? No 86¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 203 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons finish with the best record in the NBA? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA se Jun 26 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $274 −$106 -39%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $149 +$100 +67%
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? Jun 26 $8 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $16 +$22 +133%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $103 +$112 +109%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $157 +$15 +10%
Will Austin Reaves play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Jun 24 $63 +$7 +11%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $70 −$70 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 24 $176 +$24 +14%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $82 +$8 +10%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 23 $1 +$7 +676%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $184 +$16 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $11 +$9 +89%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $175 +$25 +14%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $87 +$500 +573%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 59¢ $7 28m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 55¢ $7 29m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 40¢ $10 30m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 35¢ $18 38m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 33¢ $0 43m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 33¢ $18 43m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 29¢ $73 56m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $249 57m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $1 57m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 37¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 37¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 59¢ $149 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 54¢ $274 1h
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $8 11h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 0¢ $0 24h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Virtus.pro 19¢ $37 25h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 8¢ $16 27h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 8¢ $0 27h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 46¢ $7 30h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 48¢ $96 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $172 35h
Will Austin Reaves play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 2d
Will Austin Reaves play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Will Austin Reaves play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? BUY Yes 89¢ $58 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $70 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Inner Circle 0¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Inner Circle 0¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Inner Circle 6¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Inner Circle 6¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Inner Circle 7¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,290.70 · official $5,287.57 (match) · 3500 history records