Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec40…8929 crypto 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%95W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$8
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$41
other 5% +$4
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 22 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 65 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 95 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses95 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage150d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $431 $432 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $431 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $430 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $430 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $427 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $427 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $426 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $426 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $425 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $424 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $423 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $422 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $422 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $422 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $421 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $421 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $421 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $420 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $420 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $419 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $418 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $417 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $417 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $415 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $414 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 05 $411 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $411 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $406 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $414 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $414 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $413 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $413 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $411 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $410 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $409 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $406 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $253 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $151 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $431 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $431 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $430 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $430 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $427 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $427 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $4 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $426 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $426 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $425 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $424 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $423 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $422 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $422 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $422 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $4 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $421 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $421 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $421 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $4 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $420 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $420 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $419 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $418 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $417 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $417 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $416 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $416 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $415 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $414 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.35 · official $438.35 (match) · 192 history records