Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:33:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec3d…0a55 sports 152 markets active 3h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$455 (-15%) realized −$201 · open −$254
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%54W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days+$115
14 days+$248
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 37% +$6
sports 26% +$140
other 20% −$99
crypto 10% −$248
world 3% +$1
politics 2% −$45
finance 1% −$25
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +19.5% +8.1% 42% 42% +2.9%
≤30d 95 +7.8% -2.4% 45% 43% +3.1%
≤90d 124 -4.9% -13.9% 44% 39% -10.7%
all 124 -4.9% -13.9% 44% 39% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 39% -10.7%
10% -22.2% 37% -19.2%
15% -29.7% 33% -27.1%
20% -36.6% 29% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$201
Unrealized−$254
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses54 / 70
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions21
Markets (closed)124 / 152
History coverage41d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Yes 28¢ 39¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? Yes 43¢ 43¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 25? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 25? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25? Yes 19¢ 13¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-32%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 25? Yes 37¢ 16¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-57%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 25? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $26 +$20 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 +$25 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 23 $26 +$80 +310%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$13 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $26 +$38 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 23 $26 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 21? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 24? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$8 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 23 $26 +$23 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $26 +$36 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? Jun 22 $26 +$39 +149%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $21 +$57 +273%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 +$43 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 21 $26 +$26 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$19 +358%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$44 +425%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $26 +$56 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$42 +162%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $26 +$95 +369%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Fran Jun 17 $26 +$132 +515%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 +$3 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $71 +$32 +44%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $41 +$30 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 25? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 59¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 44¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 98¢ $45 11h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 13h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 25? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 26h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 26h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $26 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 37h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 37h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $106 38h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 39h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 42h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 45h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 24? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 45h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 46h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.96 · official $467.97 (match) · 360 history records