Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec3d…6913 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-15%) realized −$40 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$41
sports 34% +$3
politics 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-67.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -63.8% -67.2% 33% 0% -50.2%
≤30d 3 -63.8% -67.2% 33% 0% -50.2%
≤90d 3 -63.8% -67.2% 33% 0% -50.2%
all 3 -63.8% -67.2% 33% 0% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.2% 0% -50.2%
10% -70.4% 0% -55.0%
15% -73.2% 0% -59.3%
20% -75.8% 0% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$22 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 42¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $85 −$43 -50%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $90 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 38¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 36¢ $40 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $40 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $85 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $90 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $90 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.16 · official $61.16 (match) · 8 history records