Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EC 0xec3c…528e other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$423 (+117%) realized +$305 · open +$118

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +150% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +118% what you keep after slip

Net edge+118%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$120per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+126.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+150.5%	+126.6%	100%	100%	+138.3%
≤30d	2	+150.5%	+126.6%	100%	100%	+138.3%
≤90d	2	+150.5%	+126.6%	100%	100%	+138.3%
all	2	+150.5%	+126.6%	100%	100%	+138.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+126.6%	100%	+138.3%
10%	+104.9%	100%	+115.5%
15%	+85.1%	100%	+94.7%
20%	+67.0%	100%	+75.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +163% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +150% · $-wt +163% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$152 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$289

Realized+$305

Unrealized+$118

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$120

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Croatia leading at halftime?	No	49¢	84¢	$171	$289	+$118 (+69%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$143	+$250	+175%
England leading at halftime?	Jun 23	$43	+$55	+126%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Croatia leading at halftime?	BUY No	52¢	$28	40m
Croatia leading at halftime?	BUY No	49¢	$145	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL No	100¢	$393	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	40¢	$45	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	34¢	$98	2h
England leading at halftime?	SELL No	100¢	$98	2h
England leading at halftime?	BUY No	52¢	$8	3h
England leading at halftime?	BUY No	42¢	$35	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.65 · official $288.65 (match) · 8 history records