Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec3c…5af6 crypto 1261 markets active 6d ago coverage 79d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,656 (-46%) realized −$3,656 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%506W / 726L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$394
politics 8% $0
finance 2% +$1
sports 1% −$20
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 -4.1% -13.2% 49% 48% -11.2%
≤30d 903 +4.0% -5.9% 40% 37% -8.1%
≤90d 1232 -0.5% -10.0% 41% 37% -14.4%
all 1232 -0.5% -10.0% 41% 37% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 37% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 35% -22.6%
15% -26.5% 33% -30.0%
20% -33.7% 30% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,656
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses506 / 726
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1232 / 1261
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1232 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records