Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec3c…5dc4 other 16 markets active 3h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,763 (-3%) realized −$4,979 · open +$1,216
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,805per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$113,635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$1,158
crypto 4% −$1,077
world 0% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -38.3% -44.2% 33% 33% -56.9%
≤90d 9 -38.3% -44.2% 33% 33% -56.9%
all 9 -38.3% -44.2% 33% 33% -56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 33% -56.9%
10% -49.5% 33% -61.0%
15% -54.4% 33% -64.8%
20% -58.9% 33% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$516 vs −$917 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$113,635
Realized−$4,979
Unrealized+$1,216
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage28d
Avg bet$7,805
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $48,652 $50,904 +$2,253 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $24,823 $24,698 −$125 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $13,700 $13,241 −$459 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $12,400 $12,340 −$60 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5,000 $4,747 −$253 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4,000 $3,923 −$77 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3,846 $3,784 −$62 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$26 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,231 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,536 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5,141 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $4,962 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,095 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,843 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,129 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $924 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $70 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $13,595 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,535 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $6,142 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4,825 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4,621 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2,057 14h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2,056 14h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,886 20h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2,057 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $75 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $14,197 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $15,346 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5,135 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5,134 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113,635.43 · official $113,635.43 (match) · 84 history records