Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EC 0xec3b…4393 crypto 1697 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$632 (+1%) realized +$632 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate86%1601W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 274 -61.6% -65.3% 36% 4% -24.7%
≤30d 612 -27.4% -34.3% 68% 6% -15.6%
≤90d 1808 -8.8% -17.5% 86% 12% -12.1%
all 1867 -8.6% -17.3% 86% 12% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 12% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 0% -20.5%
15% -32.5% 0% -28.2%
20% -39.1% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$632
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1601 / 266
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1867 / 1697
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1867 Trades
no open positions (265 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $116 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $142 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $238 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $236 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $140 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $143 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $238 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $238 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $238 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $133 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $133 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $136 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $238 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $140 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $90 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $191 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $91 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $191 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $91 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $93 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $95 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $91 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $191 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records