Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EC 0xec3b…fbab sports 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$834 (-12%) realized −$834 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%123W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$136
30 days−$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$852
other 16% −$257
finance 14% +$43
crypto 3% −$37
politics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -38.5% -44.3% 33% 33% -48.0%
≤30d 15 -57.3% -61.4% 27% 20% -57.6%
≤90d 90 -19.1% -26.8% 49% 48% -39.4%
all 231 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 48% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 48% -20.3%
10% -27.2% 42% -27.9%
15% -34.2% 32% -34.9%
20% -40.7% 20% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$834
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses123 / 108
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage120d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 29 $29 −$25 -83%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$43 -84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$49 -49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $51 −$46 -90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$26 +51%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$12 -59%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 14 $25 −$24 -96%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5 Apr 16 $35 +$31 +89%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $40 −$28 -70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $15 +$16 +105%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5 Apr 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Apr 15 $15 −$2 -14%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5 Apr 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $15 +$11 +73%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $15 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $10 +$4 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Johnny Speeds (BO1) - Conquest of Prague On Apr 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $15 +$8 +52%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $10 +$3 +34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $15 +$7 +48%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $15 +$7 +50%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 13 $10 −$20 -198%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 246.5 Apr 13 $25 −$50 -200%
Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 240.5 Apr 13 $15 −$30 -200%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Apr 13 $25 −$50 -200%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 247.5 Apr 13 $131 −$194 -148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 16h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $5 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $9 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 92¢ $51 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $95 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 SELL Over 5¢ $5 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $76 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 15¢ $8 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $20 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 15d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $21 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.91 · official $104.91 (match) · 581 history records